Someone who reads my articles asked me this question: Geoff,
How do you estimate intrinsic value��o you do a DCF or some other method?
John
That�� a great question. And a very hard one to answer. Let�� start with the easy part: do I use a DCF?
No. I never use a Discounted Cash Flow analysis (DCF).
Why not?
A DCF is a pretty complicated and subjective approach that draws your attention away from the variables that matter. I��e said before that the things to focus on ��the variables to use in your analysis ��are numbers that are:
1. Constant
2. Consequential
3. Calculable
Constant means the numbers you use should have some amount of durability. Don�� use last year�� sales growth rate. Can you use the 10-year sales growth rate?
Probably.
You wouldn�� want to do that for a homebuilder or a company that is in the business of selling some commodity that has seen tremendous price growth over the last 10 years. But you could certainly incorporate long-term growth in a market, technology, population, etc. It��l be easier to do this for some companies than for other companies. Focus on the companies where you know what matters and where the things that matter can be measured.
Top 5 Oil Stocks For 2015: Western Digital Corp (WDC)
Western Digital Corporation (WD) is a provider of solutions for the collection, storage, management, protection and use of digital content, including audio and video. Its principal products are hard drives, which are devices that use one or more rotating magnetic disks (magnetic media) to store and allow access to data. Its hard drives are used in desktop and notebook computers, corporate and cloud computing data centers, home entertainment equipment and stand-alone consumer storage devices. In addition to hard drives, its other products include solid-state drives and home entertainment and networking products. The Company operates as the parent company of its hard drive business, Western Digital Technologies, Inc. Effective March 8, 2012, the Company acquired Viviti Technologies Ltd. In May 2012, the Company completed the divestiture of certain 3.5-inch hard drive assets to Toshiba Corporation. As part of its deal with Toshiba, WD also completed its purchase of Toshiba Storage Device (Thailand) Company Limited (TSDT), which manufactured hard drives.
The Company offers a line of storage devices. Its hard drives include 3.5-inch and 2.5-inch form factors, capacities ranging from 80 gigabytes to three terabytes, nominal rotation speeds up to 10,000 revolutions per minute, and interfaces, such as Serial Advanced Technology Attachment (SATA) and Serial Attached SCSI (Small Computer System Interface) (SAS). In addition, the Company offers a family of hard drives specifically designed to consume less power than standard drives, utilizing its WD GreenPower Technology. Its solid-state drives include 2.5-inch and Compact Flash form factors, capacities ranging from 1 gigabyte to 256 gigabytes, and interfaces, such as SATA and PATA.
Client Compute Storage Products
Client compute consists of hard drives and solid-state drives for desktop and mobile personal computers (PC��). During the fiscal year ended July 1, 2011 (fiscal 2011), it shipped 151 million hard drive clie! nt compute unit. Its client compute storage products include WD Caviar, WD Scorpio and WD Silicon Edge. WD Caviar family of hard drives is designed for use in desktop PCs. WD Scorpio family of hard drives is designed for use in mobile PCs. WD Silicon Edge family of solid-state drives is designed for both read-intensive client/consumer applications and write-intensive original equipment manufacturer (OEM) applications.
Client Non-Compute Storage Products
Client non-compute consists of branded products and consumer electronics products. Its hard drive client non-compute unit shipments were 46 million, during fiscal 2011.
Branded Products
Branded products consists of hard drives embedded into WD-branded external storage appliances with capacities ranging from 250 gigabytes to 8 terabytes and using interfaces, such as Universal Serial Bus (USB) 2.0, USB 3.0, external SATA, FireWire and Ethernet network connections. Certain branded products models include software that assists customers with back up, remote access and management of digital content. Branded products also include its home entertainment and networking products. Its branded products include My Book and WD Elements Desktop family of storage appliances. My Passport and WD Elements Portable family of storage appliances include WD ShareSpace, WD TV and WD Livewire.
My Book and WD Elements Desktop family of storage appliances are designed to add external capacity to desktops and digital video recorders (DVRs), allow for the transfer and storage of videos directly from certain camcorders, and connect to networks to simplify storage for consumers. My Passport and WD Elements Portable family of storage appliances are designed for external portability weighing less than one-half of a pound and allow for the transfer and storage of videos directly from certain camcorders. WD ShareSpace is a network-attached storage system designed for home office or small office applications. WD TV m! edia play! ers connect to a user�� television or home theater system and play digital movies, music and photos from an integrated hard drive, network hard drives, any of its WD-branded external hard drives, other USB mass storage devices or content services accessed over the Internet. WD Livewire, which enables consumers to use their existing electrical outlets to extend Internet connections throughout the home.
Consumer Electronics Products
WD AV family of hard drives is designed for use in products, such as DVRs and audio and video applications. WD AV drives deliver the characteristics CE manufacturers.
Enterprise Storage Products
Enterprise consists of hard drives for traditional enterprise and nearline storage applications, as well as solid-state drives for embedded applications. Its hard drive enterprise unit shipments were 10 million, for fiscal 2011. Its enterprise storage products include WD S25 hard drive, WD VelociRaptor, WD RE and WD SiliconDrive. WD S25 hard drive is designed for mission-critical enterprise server and storage applications, such as data centers and data arrays. WD VelociRaptor hard drive is designed for enterprise server and storage applications. This hard drive is also used in the high-end desktop PC market for applications including gaming, servers and advanced computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) systems. WD RE family of hard drives is designed for nearline storage enterprise applications. WD SiliconDrive family of solid-state drives features fast read/write speeds in high capacities and is designed for embedded system OEM applications.
The Company competes with Hitachi Global Storage Technologies, Intel Corporation, Micron Technology, Inc., Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Seagate Technology, STEC, Inc. and Toshiba Corporation.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Daniela Pylypczak]
Western Digital (WDC) announced on Wednesday that its chief financial officer, Wolfgange Nickl, is resigning.
Nickl’s resignation from WDC will be effective November 17, 2013, when he becomes the new CFO at ASML Holding N.V. in the Netherlands. Nickl has served as CFO at Western Digital since August of 2010; prior to that, he served in several other positions within WDC’s finance and operations divisions. Western Digital has stated that it is in the process of searching for a new CFO.
Western Digital shares traded 1.15% higher during Wednesday’s session. Year-to-date, the stock is up 48.90%.
Top 5 Heal Care Companies For 2014: Franklin Resources Inc.(BEN)
Franklin Resources Inc. is a publicly owned asset management holding company. The firm provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships. It manages, through its subsidiary, separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. The firm also launches equity, fixed income, and balanced mutual funds. It launches hedge funds and provides retirement plans to its clients through its subsidiaries. The firm invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe through its subsidiaries. Franklin Resources, Inc was founded in 1947 and is based in San Mateo, California with additional offices in Edinburgh, United Kingdom, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida, Hong Kong, China, Melbourne, Australia, Sydney, Australia, Nassau, Bahamas, New York City, Paris, France, Rancho Cordova, California, and Toronto, Ontario.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Diane Alter]
Dividend Stocks That Increased Payout in September
Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) announced a 14.8%, or $0.12 per share, increase to its semiannual dividend. The management consulting firm will now pay a semiannual dividend of $0.93. Shares yield 2.53%. Agruim Inc. (NYSE: AGU) boosted its dividend by $1.00 per share to a total dividend of $3.00 on an annualized basis. Shares of the global retailer of agricultural products now sprout a 3.54% yield. Air Industries Group Inc. (NYSE: AIRI) doubled its dividend to $0.125 per share. The maker of airplane and helicopter parts now floats a lofty yield of 6.6%. Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (NYSE: ARE) upped its dividend 4.6% to $0.68 per quarter for a yield of 4.21%. Banner Corp. (Nasdaq: BANR) boosted its quarterly dividend 25% to $0.15 per share. The parent company of Banner and Islander Bank serves the Pacific Northwest region. Brady Corp. (NYSE: BRC) lifted its quarterly dividend 2.6% to $0.78 per share. It was the 28th straight dividend increase from the identification solutions company. Shares yield 2.57%. Campbell Soup Co. (NSE: CPB) raised its quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share, up from $0.29. The company last raised its dividend in November 2010. Shares yield a hearty 3.06%. CLARCOR Inc. (NYSE: CLC) raised its quarterly dividend 26% to $0.17 per share. It's the largest percentage increase from the Tennessee-based diversified marketer of mobile filtration and packaging products in the last 20 years, and it continues the company's consecutive streak of increasing dividends for the last 30 years. Franklin Resources Inc. (NYSE: BEN) boosted its quarterly dividend 2.6% to $0.10 per share. Frisch's Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: FRS) increased its quarterly dividend 12.5% to $0.18. Shares yield 3.10% The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE: GT), in a move that suggests good times are ahead, reinstated its dividend at $0.05 per share. Good - [By Dan Caplinger]
In the following video, Dan Caplinger, The Motley Fool's director of investment planning, goes through a few situations where an IRA rollover might not be ideal. Dan notes that Franklin Templeton (NYSE: BEN ) , AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB ) , Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) , and other companies often offer cheaper class of mutual funds that would otherwise carry sales loads or higher fees outside a 401(k). Dan also talks about company stock and the special rules for 401(k)s that own it, as well as the importance of looking at overall fees to decide if your 401(k) is the best place to invest or whether an IRA rollover will help you more.
Top 5 Heal Care Companies For 2014: PACCAR Inc.(PCAR)
PACCAR Inc, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks and related aftermarket parts worldwide. The company offers its trucks for use in the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of freight, petroleum, wood products, construction, and other materials to independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. It also provides finance and leasing products and services, such as inventory financing for independent dealers; and retail loan and lease financing for new and used trucks, as well as other transportation equipment; and full service leasing under the PacLease trade name. In addition, it manufactures and sells industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Brian Stoffel]
The business from PACCAR (NASDAQ: PCAR ) in particular, is important to Cummins. In 2012, PACCAR accounted for 13% of Cummins' consolidated net sales. If any of these companies were to switch to a different engine maker, or choose to make their own engines in-house, it would likely cause a noticeable decline in revenue.
- [By Dan Caplinger]
Navistar hasn't been entirely locked out of the trucking market, though. The company won several contracts from the Defense Department in support of its military vehicles, including its MaxxPro mine-resistant, ambush-protected armored vehicle. On the commercial front, Navistar won part of an order in May from trucking company Con-Way (NYSE: CNW ) , which purchased 200 ProStar vehicles from the company. Still, the fact that rival Paccar (NASDAQ: PCAR ) got an even bigger portion of the Con-Way order is just one more sign of the ongoing struggles Navistar faces.
- [By Charley Blaine]
Results from truck-maker Paccar (NASDAQ: PCAR), toymaker Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT) and lumber-and-paper maker Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) on Friday may offer a glimpse of what's ahead.
- [By Daniel Ferry]
Another important development last week was the announcement that Trillium CNG, a division of Integrys Energy Group (NYSE: TEG ) , would build 101 new compressed natural gas (CNG) refueling stations across the country by 2016. This would expand the existing infrastructure of publicly available CNG refueling stations by nearly 20%. This is good news for Westport because many of Westport's products run on CNG, including its bi-fuel WiNG system for light-duty Ford pickup trucks, as well as the medium-duty ISL G and heavy-duty ISX12 G engines it produces through Cummins Westport Incorporated, its manufacturing joint-venture with independent engine maker Cummins (NYSE: CMI ) . Users of the ISL G and ISX12 G engines include long-haul truck manufacturers like PACCAR (NASDAQ: PCAR ) , Volvo, and Daimler. Freight trucking is a critical growth industry for natural gas engines, because the long miles and heavy loads that freight trucks endure relative to passenger vehicles make them especially sensitive to fuel costs.
Top 5 Heal Care Companies For 2014: Full Circle Capital Corporation (FULL)
Full Circle Capital Corporation is a business development company and operates as an externally managed non-diversified closed-end management investment company. It invests in debt and equity securities of smaller and lower middle-market companies with annual revenues between $3 million and $75 million. The company primarily invests in various categories of debt comprising asset-based senior secured loans, subordinated or unsecured loans, and mezzanine loans. It seeks to invest in a range of industries with a focus on media, communications, and business services. The company primarily seeks to invest between $3 million and $10 million. However, it can also make larger investments.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Monica Wolfe]
Full Circle Capital Corp (FULL)
Over the past week there were two insiders making four buys into Full Circle Capital.� These buys come as the company�� price has hit its lowest price since Nov. 2011.
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